The Instability of Divorce Risk Factors in the UK

We examine the stability of divorce determinants in the UK between 1960 and 1989. Using retrospective marriage history data, we show that, over successive marriage cohorts, the associations between marital instability and many covariates have undergone substantial, systematic and quite interpretable changes. Thus, the parameter for marrying a divorcee has weakened over time, while that for premarital cohabitation follows a non-monotonic pattern: an initial decline is followed by a rise. We also report a reversal of the educational gradient in divorce. Better educated women used to have higher divorce risks, but now their marriage is more stable than that of women without qualifications. Finally, we confirm a recent finding that in the UK the familiar marriage-stabilising effect of children has been reversed. We interpret these changes in terms of self-selection and other social changes.